Life Expectancy Simulation Model among HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus)-Infected Individuals: A Monte Carlo Approach

Melvin  R. De Castro,; Tonette  M. Villanueva,; Ronnie  B. Gonzalve,

Life Expectancy Simulation Model among HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus)-Infected Individuals: A Monte Carlo Approach

Melvin R. De Castro | Tonette M. Villanueva | Ronnie B. Gonzalve

Abstract:

The study of life expectancies of HIV infected individuals requires a long term experiment design which may not be feasible due to the immediate need for such information. Alternatively, it is possible to gain insights in the phenomena using a quasi-experimental design through simulation and Monte Carlo methods. This study used the latter design based on the empirical regression function produced by Lancet (2008) which predicts life expectancy of HIV infected individuals as a function of treatment, CD counts and age of the individual. The latter determinants of life expectancy were generated as phenomena by computer simulations. Results revealed that there is an increased lifespan of about six (6) folds of HIV infected individuals who seek treatment than those otherwise. The estimated average lifespan of individuals being treated ranges 38-66 years that is greater than those without treatment of 5-11 years from individuals who do not seek treatment. Computer simulations tended to confirm the efficacy of early diagnosis coupled with antiretroviral therapy (ART) as a means to prolong life expectancy by as much as five (5) to ten (10) more years.